亚搏登陆

来看,吴晓波、罗振宇对2019都做了什么预测?

2020-01-02 集团总部

2019niandeyuandan,wuxiaobogenluozhenyudoujidajiadalailezijidekuanianyanjiang,qianzhezhutishi“yujian2019: guoyun70”,houzhezhutishi“2018shijiandepengyou。

paokairenaodeduanziyujinju、ningganshuifen,亚搏登陆 laikankantamenliangdaodijidajiagongxianleshenmeyangdeganhuo。pengyouquanliyijingyourenpingjia: wuxiaobodekuanianshikaopuzhongdaizhehuyou,luozhenyuzeshihuyouzhongdaizhekaopu,huanfeiyanshougeyousuohao,doushijiaolvdeshehuirenbukehuoquedebaojianpin。

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复盘2018先从“靠谱中带着忽悠”的吴晓波开始:

1、meiguowakeng,quanqiujingtian——2017nian,telangpudangxuanmeiguozongtonghoudafujianshui,rangmeiguode2018nianchengweijin30nianlaijingjizengzhangzuihaodenianfen,haigenzhoubianguojia,baokuozhongguochanshenglemaoyimoca;

亚搏登陆2、maihaozichan,touqiongguojia——2018nian,亚搏登陆 youjihuidaodeguo、faguo、meiguomaiyixiehaodezhizaogongsi,bangzhu亚搏登陆 zhizaoshengji,tongshitongguo“yidaiyilu”bangzhuzhoubianguojiawanchengqijichusheshihekuangchankaifa;zhidao2018nian5yue,meiguoxuanbujiangdui500yimeiyuanzhongguoshangpinzhengshui,zheigeheitianeshijiandefasheng,ezhilezhongguoxiangquanqiugoumaihaojishudequshi;

3、dachengjuneng,zhongbujueqi——2018nian,zhongguomingyigdpzengzhangzuikuaidedoushizhongbuchengshi,guiyang、xian、zhengzhou、wuhan、hefei,zheixiechengshidemingyigdpzengsuchaoguole10%;lingwai,daliangdejingjinenglikaishixiangyixiejuxingchengshiqunjuji,biruyuegangaodawanqu,renkoujiazaiyiqigaoda6800wan,zhongxinchengshidenenglibiandeyuelaiyueda;

4、diaosixiemu,lingshouzaizao——2018nian,xinlingshouyiranshiyigefazhandelingrenpengranxindongdejingxiang;

5、jiqirenzhonggouzhizaoye——zhongguoshiquanqiujiqirengongsizuiduodeguojia,you2600jiajiqirengongsi;

6、5gshangyongxiangxiangwulian——2018nianchuxiandelianxiang、gaotongshijian,nianmodehuaweishijian,dougen5gshangyong、5gzhuanli、5gshebeidengwentiyouzhongdaguanxi,buchuyiwaidehua,2019nian,zaibeijing、shanghaidengruogangechengshihuichuxiandiyipi5gshouji;

亚搏登陆7、shangshitisu,chuangyejiangwen——yidonghulianwangzi2012nianyilaisuoxingchengdezenglianghongli,dao2016nian、2017nianshijishangyijingjieshu,yinci2018nianchuxianlechuangyejiangwendejingxiang,zheiyeshijinnianjingjibijiaokunnandeyigewaibuxingyuanyin;shangshitisuzaineidimeiyoukandao,daliangzhongguodexinjingjigongsiquxianggangshangshi,genshenhuliangshidebiaoxianchengxianxijuhuafancha;

8、zuqiujiewuwenyukuanghuan——zheigeyucewanquanmeiyoushixian,jinnianshidagaijinshinianlaiwenhuayuleyingshichanyezuirangrenjusangdeyinian。

suoyi,亚搏登陆 yujiandaoleyixieshijian,yefashengleyixieheitianeshijian。daojintian,亚搏登陆 huifaxian,jijiangguoqude2018nianhaishiji亚搏登陆 liuxialehenduoxuannian,jutishinaxieni?

亚搏登陆1、zhongmeimaoyizhanheshifangxiu?

2、qiyejiadetouzireqingkaoshenmejihuo?

3、shibushichuxianlexiaofeijiangji?

4、fangdichanhuibuhuifashengbengpan?

5、chuangyehaihuibuhuijixurexiaqu?

 

yixiewangyoudehuida:

1、yangeyiyishangdemaoyizhanganggangkaishi,tanjieshuweishiguozao;

2、qiyejiatouzireqingdejihuozhinengshiwendingzhengcehefalvyuqi,zheigeyaokaoyanzhizhengshuiping;

3、suizheshourudeshijixiajiang,suizhegaofangjia、beicandetouzishouyiduizhongchanjiejideshouge,xiaofeijiangjishibirande;

亚搏登陆4、fangdichanyibushishichangwenti,suoyibunengyebuhuibeng;

5、chuangyetuichaowuyongzhiyi,zuipadeshirenmendoukaishizhonghuidaqiye,quanguodongbeihua。


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再来看的罗胖小趋势。一如既往,罗胖的跨年就是一年的段子加金句集合,这些金句朋友圈刷屏太多,每个人都可以找到属于自己的心灵鸡汤。

亚搏登陆2018nian,yixiedagongsiganzheganzheturanyudaoweijile,duoshaobeigongrenyouqiantudexingye,ganzheganzheturanjiuyudaoleguaidian。shenzhihaoduoshihezijishizagande,doumeiyouguanxi。

亚搏登陆 bucaoxinxingyehegongsicengmiandeshi,jiuxiangxiangzanmenziji。2018nianguolaizhihou,woduoshaoganjue,suoyouneixiecengjingkanqilaijiangulaokaodedongxihoumian,xianzaidouxiangdayigewenhao: zheigeshijiehaihuihaoma?

亚搏登陆yiqian,bianhuakenengzhishishenghuodeyibufen;xianzai,bianhuakenengchengleshenghuobenshen。

duiyuyaoguoqude2018nian,pinglunjiamenfenxihuanjing,youderenshuobeiguan,youderenshuoleguan。zheixiefenxi,nagewodouting,nagewoyebuquanxin。woweiyiguanxindeshi,woshoutoudeshishangjutidenanchu。

zheixienanchu,haonianjingweibigengshao,huainianjingyeweibigengduo。zheijuhuanitingqilaiyoudianqiguai,xuezhaofenglaoshidalegebifangniyitingjiudong: hongguanhaohuaijiuxiangquanqiupingjunqiwen,niyaoshiguanxinrenleidemingyun,pingjunqiwenyoujiazhi。danshinijintianyaochumenbangeshi,tazhenmeishayong。

ganxie2018nian,rang亚搏登陆 youjihuifansi。

nihainengzhuazhumougedaqushi、suidaliu、courenao,ranhouliyutiaolongmen、yilaoyongyima?亚搏登陆 haikeyinazheyizhangtongyongderuchangquan,koukaimouyigedamen,ranhoucongcitangzhefenxianglimiandehonglima?2018nian亚搏登陆 zhidao,neigeshidaizaiyebuzaile,亚搏登陆 bixuxuehuiyongxindefangfa: xiaoqushi。

亚搏登陆亚搏登陆 kenengyoubiyaobashijielijiechengyizuduominuogupai,tabaichengshenmeyangbuzhidao。danshizhiyaoyouyigexiaoxiaodezhandong,napashiyizhiluguodemayipengdaoleyizhangpai,yigejixiaodequshi,neimedoudongleyixia,jiutuidongleyigedayidiandequshi,zaituidongyigegengdadequshi,jingguoyilianchuandeliansuofanying,dengtuidao亚搏登陆 mianqiandeshihou,yijingmianmuquanfei,erqiehaibianchenglegepangrandawu。meiyizhangpaidaoxiadeshihou,douhennanyucetahuituidaoshenme?fangdashenme?youhuixiaomieshenme?zuizhongdejingxiangyoushishenme?

亚搏登陆haole,亚搏登陆 zhongyumingbaixiaoqushizheigenanchandeyaojingshishale?

diyi,taxiao,suoyihennanchajue。dier,tabufashengzaiwoshuxidelingyuli,tashitongguoyixiliedeliansuofanyingcaigundongdaowomianqian。suoyi,nishuo亚搏登陆 zenmeyuceta。

xianzai,亚搏登陆 jiuzhidaoshenmeshi“xiaoqushi”le。tabushidaqushidexiaoshihou,tabenshenyeweibinengzhangchengyigedaqushi,tadeweilishinengqidongliansuofanying。

所以,现在亚搏登陆 可以给小趋势下一个相对准确的定义了。小趋势是啥?小趋势是影响趋势的趋势,带来改变的改变。


展望2019年

吴晓波2019的八大预测

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1、信心之年,经济待暖——明年经济在一个比较艰难的环境下存在,是大概率事件。

亚搏登陆2、jijiankuorong,jingtiwujia——ruguozheiyilundejingjiweijirengrantongguojichusheshijianshe,erbushitongguozhiduchuangxin,yijijihuominyingtouzidezhuangtailaiwancheng,henkenengjingjifusuhuiyiyizhongwujiapengzhangdefangshichuxian。

3、zhizaoshengji,xuannianchuxian;

4、xinjiangrenchuangzaoxinguohuo——worenweizhongguochuangyezuirangrengandaogaoxingdeyijianshiqing,fashenglejigeqiansuoweijiandebianhua: bentusuxing、yanzhidiedai、wumeijiaping、xifenweiwang;

5、xinzhongchanqudongxinxiaofei——yijiudianyeweili,90houyijingchengweichuchazuiduoderen,bufuhetamenshenmeidejiudianfuwuxingye,kenengzaiweilaijiuyaobeitaotai。wenchuangzhizaoyeyeshitongyangdaoli,liuxingdequxianzaibianduan,chuangxindequxianzaibianduan,danshichuangxindeshenduzailasheng,nibixujiakuaichuangxindiedainengli;

6、shejiaoquancenghuiyuanfengxing——suizhexinzhongchandejueqi,suizhexinjiangrenxinguohuochuxian,suizheshejiaohuanjingdeliutong,2019nianhuichuxiansangeshangyemoshidechuangxin: quancengshejiao、siyudianshang、huiyuanzhi;

7、xinjinronggemingyaolaile——2019niansuizhezheixiehulianwangyinxinghekejigongsijishuhemoshibuduandiedai,zhongguoshixiaoweijinrongchuangxinjiangyaodubutianxia。worenweizaiguojiaxiangguanzhengceyunxudetiaojianxia,sannianneizhongguojiejuexiaoweiqiyedaikuanbingbushiyigemengxiang,tajiukaoyijianshi,kaozhiduhejishuchuangxinlaiwancheng;

亚搏登陆8、cheyetubian5glaixi——zhongguozaixinnengyuanqichelingyudejinbupaizaiquanqiudiyiwei,cheyezai2019nianhuifashengxindetubian。shinianyig,1999nianshijieshangyoule3g,3gyiweizhepchulianwangshidaidedaolai,2009nianchuxianle4g,亚搏登陆 jiaotmdyidonghulianwang,2012nianyidonghulianwangxiadeneixiedanjiushi4gdailaidejieguo,tamenjinjinhualeliunianshijianjiuchengweilezhongguoshidahulianwangzhongdesijia。2019nianxindehonglikaishile,5glailin。


罗振宇

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zaidaqushimianqian,dapeirengongzhinengzheiyangdewuqi,shimianshangnisuoyoujiaodechumingzidechaojipingtaigongsi,doushinianyabandecunzai。ruguonigankaicuoguolezheiyangdedaqushi,wozhinengshuonixiangduole。zheizhongqushizhishishaobufenrencainengganzhihebawo,juedabufenrendoumeiyoukenengzhangkong。zheibushi亚搏登陆 nengwandeyouxi。

亚搏登陆danshi亚搏登陆 nengwandeshishenmeni,haijide亚搏登陆 dezhutima?xiaoqushi。

nizai2012nianzhiqian,meichengweiyigetaopinpai,shibushijiucuoguole?meiyoua。

亚搏登陆zheiyiniande9yue,weixingongzhonghaoshangxianle,weixindianshangdechuntianjiulaile。

zheiboyoumeiganshang。meishia,2013nian,taobaokaishifuchiwanghongdianshangleya。

zheiboninhaimeiganshang。2014nian,o2okaishile。

nihaimeiganshang。2015nian,shejiaodianshangkaishile。

nirengranmeiyouganshang。2016nian,pintuankaishile。

亚搏登陆nihaishimeiyouganshang。2017nian,zhibodianshangkaishile。

daole2018nianninhaimeixing,wozhinengshuoyourenyijingxingle,duanshipindaihuo,kuaishousandageyitiandaihuo1.6yi。

亚搏登陆nishuo,zheigejihuichuangkoushenmeshihouguanbiguo?zhibuguotabuzaidaqushili,dakaitadezhishiyigegexiaoqushi。

zheishuomingsha?zongyouxinjihui,zongyouxiayiban。nayoumobanche?

yexujinwan亚搏登陆 nengtongguoyilianchuanzhaxindewenti,zhaodaozhuazhuxiaoqushidefangfa。

xianwendiyigewenti: suoyouqushidouqiyuanyushishi,xiangzhuazhuxiaoqushi,neijiudenengrenqingshishi。neiwentishi,亚搏登陆 kandedaoshishima?

huidaozheibufendezhuti,woxiangshuodeshi: haiyuandeliliangjiqizhongyao,danshihenrongyibeihulve。neimewentilaile,亚搏登陆 zenmeyongyouzheizhonghaiyuandenenglini?

亚搏登陆jiushiliugezi——duoyuansiweimoxing。ranghenduozhongrenshishijiedemoxingzaizijidenaozilibingcun。

亚搏登陆weilezhuazhuxiaoqushi,wonengkandaoshishima?

xianzaiwokeyihuidazheigewentile: neng,ruguonizhangwoduoyuansiweimoxing。

zhaxindierwen: wonengganzhi“feigongshi”ma?

世界上有很多创新,不是往前,不是走向从来没人去过的陌生地带,而恰恰是往回走。回到刚才提出的那个问题: 我能感知“非共识”吗?这个问题的本质是,亚搏登陆 能创新吗?

亚搏登陆xianzai亚搏登陆 keyihuidale: neng,zhiyaoniyoubenshiyongzuixindefangfabaneixiegulaodeshiqingzaizuoyibian。qishichuangxinyizhidoucunzaiyigewendingdelujing。

亚搏登陆jintianwodehexinrenwushixiwangnijizhuzheijuhua: jueding亚搏登陆 zheiyidairengetimingyunde,chulezhongsuozhouzhidedaqushi,gengshineizhongxuyao亚搏登陆 meiyigerenzijiquzhudongfaxiandexiaoqushi。

亚搏登陆guoqude200duonian,亚搏登陆 deliliangcongnalilai?daanshimingbaizhede: kaogongju,kaojiqi,jintiankaorengongzhineng,haiyoushenmenengbirengongzhinenggengyouliliang?

亚搏登陆rengongzhinengzheimelihai,jiufanchende亚搏登陆 renleixiangdangwuneng。renleishibeirengongzhinenganzaidishangmoca,chongmanlewuligan。

danwentilaile,yaoxiangzuochengdianershi,chuleyilaijiqi、rengongzhineng,wojiumeiyoubiedelilianglaiyuanlema?ruguodaanshizheiyang,neikezhengourangrenjuewangde。rengongzhinengbeihouyeshirena,ruguozheigeshijiezhishengrengongzhinengyouliliang,neijiuzhendeyiweizhezheigeshishangzhiyoushaoshudeyingjiayoujihuile。

2018nian,亚搏登陆 haishiyinyinyueyuekandaolelingwaiyixiexianxiang,birupinduoduo。

亚搏登陆2018nian7yue26ri,pinduoduoshangshi。nenggouzhangchengzheimeyigepangrandawu,erqiehaizaizhuliugongzhongdeshiyezhiwai,pinduoduoyidingshibeiyige亚搏登陆 hulvededongxiqudongzhe。

zheigedongxishishenmeni?huangzheng,yejiushipinduoduodechuangshiren,tazijishizheimeshuode: “pinduoduoshirendeluoji。”shenmeyisini?

亚搏登陆suoweirendeluojijiushi,lidamakanjianyigedongxihenxihuan,tajiuxiang,zhaodamagenwoqingkuangchabuduo,kendingyexuyao,woliangyiqimaihaibianyi5kuaiqian,suoyijiushuofuzhaodamagenzijiyiqipinqilai。zhaodamayeshizheimeshuofuzhangdamade。jiuzheiyang,renyuegunyueduo。zheijiushipinduoduozuidicengdeshangyeluoji。

亚搏登陆guanyuxiaoqushi,qianmian亚搏登陆 taolunledisigewenti,xianzaizuihouyigewentilaile。zheikenengshibenchangyanjiangzuizhaxindeyigewenti。亚搏登陆 douxiwangzijishishijiandepengyou,danshi,niwenmeiwenguoziji: woxiangheshijianzuopengyou,danshishijianyuanyihewozuopengyouma?

jielunhenmingxian: zhiyaoninengzugouqiangda,tiaochushijianshezhidexianjing,erqiechixu、zhangqidishouzhumubiao,nijiunengchengweishijiandepengyou。zheizhongxingweimoshi,jiaozuo“zhangqizhuyi”。zhiyouzhangqizhuyizhe,cainengchengweishijiandepengyou。

neiwozailaiqingdianyixia,zaiguoqude4gexiaoshili,亚搏登陆 yiqishouhuoleshenme?

sangezi: xiaoqushi。

xiaoqushishishenme?shiyingxiangqushidequshi,dailaigaibiandegaibian。xiaoqushimeifagen,yebuyonggen。zhixuyao亚搏登陆 suishiganzhita,ranhoujifaneixienizaoyizhunbeihaodeliliang。

zenmezhunbeini?gangcai亚搏登陆 tidesuoweizhaxinwuwen,jiushizuozhunbeidejigefangxiang:

亚搏登陆zhuazhuxiaoqushi,shouxianzongdelejieshishizhenxiang;

zhuazhuxiaoqushi,niyaonengzhengtuoguannianjiasuo;

亚搏登陆zhuazhuxiaoqushi,nidezhongxindingweishengmingdezuobiao;

亚搏登陆zhuazhuxiaoqushi,nidexuehuicongrendeshenshangjiquliliang;

亚搏登陆zhuazhuxiaoqushi,nihaideyouyitaozhangqizhuyiderenshengsuanfa。

亚搏登陆youlezheiwutiao,xiaoqushilaideshihou,nijiuhuibazijixiangyilizidanyiyang,fashechuqu。

本文源自互联网

亚搏登陆